Probability

My vacation was wonderful.  I had no idea how good it would feel to be away from work and research.  It was full on fun and frolic and I definitely recommend taking a break from commitments, expectations, routines etc.  I was surprised that I didn’t think about my research topic at all, but instead statistics popped up a few times. 

One situation occurred on the third day of my vacation, when I dragged myself to the gym for a short workout.  I used the shuffle on my IPOD while on an elliptical machine, it had a cool attachment that displayed the song titles on a small screen.  After my cardio, I detached my IPOD and went to  do some weights.  I engaged shuffle again.  What amazed me was “Word Up”, a great song by Cameo, which I had heard during my cardio was the third song that I heard while doing weights.  What is the chance of hearing the same song, within 15 minutes, in two separate shuffles of a play-list of 500 songs?  As I though about this question my brain immediately responded that I could actually calculate the probability of this occurring because I had recently read about this in my statistics text.  I couldn’t remember the formula, but was fairly certain that it would be easy to calculate.   So I guess this means that some of the statistics that I am reading is actually “sticking” -woohoo!

Today I spent a few hours reading through thoughts I  have documented over the past few months summarizing the existing literature on my research topic and where I might make contribution.  I then generated some new ideas on potential gaps and methodology and went to the library to do do some preliminary investigation.  I printed  several academic papers and checked-out 8 books.  Lots of reading to do!  It was fun and stimulating getting back into it.  Think the vacation was just what I needed and a good boost to get through the heavy lifting from now until Christmas.

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